Su-Wei Hsieh vs Petra Martic
Line: Martic -160 (-2.5 -110), Hsieh +125 (+2.5 -120)
Those not familiar with Taiwan’s Su-wei Hsieh should check out some of the Youtube content and get educated. The world’s top doubles player sports a plain tank top, a visor that looks like it was stolen from a senior center, and weighs hundred pounds soaking wet. In 2019 she found success in singles competition, climbing as high as 33 in October. Nothing about her game is overpowering, and her two-handed forehand is one of the more unorthodox things from an elite athlete. Her doubles prowess is likely the result of an excellent feel for the lines, and when in form, she’s capable of beating – but mostly frustrating – anyone in her way.
Neither of these ladies are in particularly good form, combining for only four wins thus far in 2020. Hsieh’s only wins came in the early qualifying rounds of this very tournament, and only remains in the main draw as a lucky loser due to another bad loss to Jen Brady. Martic is in a different class than Hsieh, and at a modest -160, she’s the best value on the board tomorrow.
Value Play: Martic in straight sets (+135)
Pick: Martic in 2
• • •
Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Line: Bencic -150 (-2.5 -110), Pavlyuchenkova +120 (+2.5 -120)
Bencic and Pavlyuchenkova have met six times, Bencic winning five of them. However, once was on the lawn at Wimbledon where Pavlyuchenkova is not in her comfort zone, and another came in October when the Russian appeared to suffer an injury after winning the first set. Pavlyuchenkova also won the first set in their meeting at St. Petersburg, but lost from behind in that match as well.
On hard courts, both ladies play about 23 games per match against competition in the WTA’s top thirty, so obviously the over (21.0 -120) has a ton of value. Pavlyuchenkova has had an amazing hard court season, and it should continue in a marathon against Bencic.
Value Play: o23.0 (+125) alternate total
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova in 3
• • •
Veronika Kudermetova vs Dayana Yastremska
Line: Kudermetova +185 (+4 -110), Yastremska -225 (-4 -120)
Kudermetova leads the head-to-head 2-0. It’s honestly a little surprising to see the odds take such a dramatic jump from their last matchup (Yastremska -180, Kudermetova +145), which the Russian dominated 6-4 6-0 at Tianjin in October. This is a complete fade of Yastremska in hopes that the mental advantage from the prior matches will continue in Dubai. At the very least, expect Kudermetova to steal a set and cover the steep four game spread comfortably.
Spread Value: Kudermetova +4 (-110)
Pick: Yastremska in 3
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