Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Anett Kontaveit
Line: Pavlyuchenkova +105 (+1 -105), Kontaveit -125 (-1 -115)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova continued her stellar hard court season with a comeback win over Belinda Bencic on Tuesday. The road gets tougher on day three against Australian Open quarter finalist Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian has had a difficult season, forced to withdraw from the US Open in the third round with a viral infection. She was able to relinquish any doubt regarding her performance with the deep run in Melbourne, but she still struggles to compete with the handful of women who can overpower her.
Value Play: Over 21.5 (-120)
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova in 3
• • •
Jen Brady vs Marketa Vondrousova
Line: Brady +110 (+1.5 -110), Vondrousova -140 (-1.5 -120)
Jen Brady is starting to put it all together. There’s not much complexity to her game; she limits unforced errors, puts the ball in play, and plays the baseline game until her opponents start taking chances. Her fitness has come into question in the past as she would fatigue due to her marathon style. However, she came into the new year in great shape and looked really fresh against Su-wei Hsieh on Sunday.
Marketa Vondrousova is an elite player, but she’s not nearly as good on the hard court as she is on clay. The 2019 French Open finalist is still only 20 years of age, and she will learn to be great on all surfaces, but will struggle to stay ahead of the Brady forehand tomorrow.
Value Play: Brady Moneyline +110
Pick: Brady in 3
• • •
Karolina Pliskova vs Kristina Mladenovic
Line: Pliskova -280 (-4 -120), Mladenovic +220 (+4 -110)
Karolina Pliskova is one of the most efficient hard court players of all time. At over six feet tall, the Czech phenom took care of Mladenovic in their only meeting this year in straight sets a few weeks ago, and she should be able to overpower her again. The only reason I’m backing such a heavy favorite is because of the recent result, and the moderately priced value for a straight sets victory.
Value Play: Pliskova in straight sets (-115)
Pick: Pliskova in 2
• • •
Closing Arguments…
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens battle tomorrow and the line is dead even, which is expected. If I were setting the odds I’d make Sabalenka a moderate -140 favorite, but that’s beside the point. These two are doubles partners, and more importantly great friends off the court. This sounds crazy, but I swear it’s true; the last time these two played, Sabalenka won the first set, and then came out completely passive in the second. It actually looked like she subconsciously took her foot off the gas because she wanted to let Mertens win the second set. I won’t bore you with the details, but that’s exactly what happened. And then Sabalenka picked right up where she left off in the first and won the third set comfortably.
Regardless of whether or not this is what actually happened, the thought has merit because at the end of the day, they’re human. And if they’re in a huge girl fight at the moment, or if they both go out there tomorrow and temporarily forget that they’re friends; the over is still a great play. Let’s not overthink this. Too late.
Value Play: Mertens/Sabalenka o21.5 (-110)
Pick: Sabalenka in 3
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