The inaugural Lyon Open is a WTA International event held on the indoor hard courts of Palais des Sports de Gerland in Lyon, France.
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Jaqueline Cristian vs. Priscilla Hon
Line: Even
Priscilla Hon is cut from the same cloth as Misaki Doi and Camila Giorgi, everything she does is with max force from the baseline. Her heavy forehand makes her a tough out when she finds form, most notably a quarter final run at the Korea Open when she took out Ajla Tomljanovic and Mihaela Buzarnescu.
Jaqueline Cristian 2019 Bucharest Open
Jaqueline Cristian appears to be on the brink of arrival. The competition provided by the ITF circuit has allowed the 21 year old to reach at least one semifinal in four of her last six tournaments, which don’t include a quarter final loss against red hot Oceane Dodin where Cristian won the first set.
The line movement tells the story here, as Cristian open at +120, and has moved thirty cents to -110. The Romanian rolls.
Minnen is a smaller scrambler with good recovery speed, but has yet to prove competitive against the WTA’s elite. She hasn’t won a title in her time on tour, which is indicative of her struggles against bigger hitters.
Caroline Garcia 2019 US Open
On the other side we have the relentlessly frustrating Caroline Garcia. Last Spring she had an incredible stretch, reaching two finals – winning one – while taking out Brady, Vekic, Cirstea, Hsieh, and Peterson on her way to a 14-5 record in May and June. This success wasn’t sustained whatsoever, but it’s clear that her ceiling is way higher than that of Minnen. Expect Garcia to display all of her attributes tomorrow, good and bad, as she outclasses the Belgian, whilst dropping a set with a mirage of unforced errors coming to Minnen’s aid.
Marta Kostyuk made a name for herself with a miracle fourth round run in the 2018 Australian Open, which she did at only 15 years of age. Now 17, the Ukrainian has been really good on the ITF circuit recently, including a win in Egypt last week.
Ysaline Bonaventure owns the win in the only matchup between the two, but it came in 2018 before Kostyuk’s breakthrough.
Marta Kostyuk 2019 ITF Poland
I would tend to lean Kostyuk in this matchup, but I’d like to highlight a few numbers that suggest the over 21.5 games is the best play. The over has hit in each of Bonaventure‘s last seven matches, five of which went three sets. Kostyuk has had a few more dominant performances than the Belgian, which is expected given the talent she faces in the challenger circuit, but she has been over 22 games in three of her last four matches as well. This one seems destined to be a marathon.
Pick: Kostyuk in 3
Recommended Value: Kostyuk to win 2-1 (+360)
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Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova continued her stellar hard court season with a comeback win over Belinda Bencic on Tuesday. The road gets tougher on day three against Australian Open quarter finalist Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian has had a difficult season, forced to withdraw from the US Open in the third round with a viral infection. She was able to relinquish any doubt regarding her performance with the deep run in Melbourne, but she still struggles to compete with the handful of women who can overpower her.
Jen Brady is starting to put it all together. There’s not much complexity to her game; she limits unforced errors, puts the ball in play, and plays the baseline game until her opponents start taking chances. Her fitness has come into question in the past as she would fatigue due to her marathon style. However, she came into the new year in great shape and looked really fresh against Su-wei Hsieh on Sunday.
Marketa Vondrousova is an elite player, but she’s not nearly as good on the hard court as she is on clay. The 2019 French Open finalist is still only 20 years of age, and she will learn to be great on all surfaces, but will struggle to stay ahead of the Brady forehand tomorrow.
Karolina Pliskova is one of the most efficient hard court players of all time. At over six feet tall, the Czech phenom took care of Mladenovic in their only meeting this year in straight sets a few weeks ago, and she should be able to overpower her again. The only reason I’m backing such a heavy favorite is because of the recent result, and the moderately priced value for a straight sets victory.
Value Play: Pliskova in straight sets (-115)
Pick: Pliskova in 2
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Closing Arguments…
Mertens & Sabalenka Miami Open 2019
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens battle tomorrow and the line is dead even, which is expected. If I were setting the odds I’d make Sabalenka a moderate -140 favorite, but that’s beside the point. These two are doubles partners, and more importantly great friends off the court. This sounds crazy, but I swear it’s true; the last time these two played, Sabalenka won the first set, and then came out completely passive in the second. It actually looked like she subconsciously took her foot off the gas because she wanted to let Mertens win the second set. I won’t bore you with the details, but that’s exactly what happened. And then Sabalenka picked right up where she left off in the first and won the third set comfortably.
Regardless of whether or not this is what actually happened, the thought has merit because at the end of the day, they’re human. And if they’re in a huge girl fight at the moment, or if they both go out there tomorrow and temporarily forget that they’re friends; the over is still a great play. Let’s not overthink this. Too late.
Petra Martic through to third round in French Open tennisnet.com
Those not familiar with Taiwan’s Su-wei Hsieh should check out some of the Youtube content and get educated. The world’s top doubles player sports a plain tank top, a visor that looks like it was stolen from a senior center, and weighs hundred pounds soaking wet. In 2019 she found success in singles competition, climbing as high as 33 in October. Nothing about her game is overpowering, and her two-handed forehand is one of the more unorthodox things from an elite athlete. Her doubles prowess is likely the result of an excellent feel for the lines, and when in form, she’s capable of beating – but mostly frustrating – anyone in her way.
Neither of these ladies are in particularly good form, combining for only four wins thus far in 2020. Hsieh’s only wins came in the early qualifying rounds of this very tournament, and only remains in the main draw as a lucky loser due to another bad loss to Jen Brady. Martic is in a different class than Hsieh, and at a modest -160, she’s the best value on the board tomorrow.
Bencic and Pavlyuchenkova have met six times, Bencic winning five of them. However, once was on the lawn at Wimbledon where Pavlyuchenkova is not in her comfort zone, and another came in October when the Russian appeared to suffer an injury after winning the first set. Pavlyuchenkova also won the first set in their meeting at St. Petersburg, but lost from behind in that match as well.
On hard courts, both ladies play about 23 games per match against competition in the WTA’s top thirty, so obviously the over (21.0 -120) has a ton of value. Pavlyuchenkova has had an amazing hard court season, and it should continue in a marathon against Bencic.
Kudermetova leads the head-to-head 2-0. It’s honestly a little surprising to see the odds take such a dramatic jump from their last matchup (Yastremska -180, Kudermetova +145), which the Russian dominated 6-4 6-0 at Tianjin in October. This is a complete fade of Yastremska in hopes that the mental advantage from the prior matches will continue in Dubai. At the very least, expect Kudermetova to steal a set and cover the steep four game spread comfortably.
Emil Ruusuvuori, a 20 year old newcomer to the ATP from Finland, has been turning some heads recently, and I’m starting to take notice. The young Finn made a final in his first event of the year, a Challenger in Canberra, where he defeated a talented lineup including Jannik Sinner, Taro Daniel, Dominik Koepfer, and Denis Kudla without dropping a set.
Egor Gerasimov has already been to an ATP final this year as well, and the big hitting Belarusian appears to be playing some of the best tennis of his career. His mobility is limited due to his stature, but length usually allows him to keep balls in play in spite of his mobility.
Both players feature big serves, and appear to be in good form making deep tournament runs in 2020. It should be a close match, and Gerasimov’s value at +2 is one of the best bets on the tennis board Monday.
Pick: Gerasimov in 3
Alexei Popyrin vs. Ilya Ivashka
Line: Popyrin -120, Ivashka -110
Alexei Popyrin US Open 2019 tennisworldusa.org
Australian Alexei Popyrin, only 20 years of age, is making a strong case for himself inside the top 50 of the ATP rankings. He earned a win in each of his first five major appearances, including a trip to the third round of the US Open in 2019. Popyrin has a huge first serve, and moves really well along the baseline in spite of standing six feet, five inches tall. Mental makeup is a weakness that will strengthen with experience, but it’s understandable because he is, you know, just a kid.
Ilya Ivashka is also a big strong player with a big serve, but his chances for breaks come few and far between. Popyrin absorbs pace much better in comparison, and only two or three opportunities should be enough for the Australian sophomore to pull away from Ivashka in straight sets.
Betting Line: Edmund -220 (-3 -125), Seppi +180 (+3 -105)
Andreas Seppi usually finds himself advancing deeper in tournaments on grass, but the veteran Italian has been efficiency personified this week in New York. In the semifinal, Seppi won 43 percent of return points on Jason Jung’s first serve. Most likely a testament to Jung’s nerves from playing in his first ATP semifinal, but also a testament to Seppi’s ability to eliminate any variety his opponent wanted to employ on serve.
After a brilliant 2018 season, including a semifinal berth at Wimbledon, Kyle Edmund has cooled off significantly. He climbed as high number 14 in the ATP rankings, but has obviously seen his name fall on that list in coordination with his decline in performance. But this week he was at his absolute best. Miomir Kecmanovic had no answers for Edmund’s serve and was only able to force two break point opportunities in the semifinal. Kecmanovic is good – if not great – at absorbing pace and forcing break points in bunches, a testament to how dominant Edmund has been this week.
Andreas Seppi has only been able to conjure a single victory against Edmund, and it came on clay. The Brit has all four wins on faster surfaces. These numbers indicate that Edmund’s serve holds the advantage over Seppi’s return game and court awareness on the hard courts.
Kyle Edmund third round Wimbledon 2018 tennisworldusa.com
Kiki Bertens is putting together another strong winter swing in 2020, just as she did last year. Her best tennis in 2019 was after the hard court season, when she advanced to the semi final of six tournaments (three finals) of the eight events she participated in between May and July. She can be frustrating when not in form, but at the moment it appears she found her groove.
At 20 years old, Elena Rybakina is making her third final appearance this year. At six feet tall, the Kazhak is cut from the same cloth as Bertens. Success revolves around landing serves in play and initiating as many baseline rallies as possible, which is very much the method of operation in women’s tennis; she’s just better than most at executing this method.
Rybakina should come out and sustain the pace Bertens wants to create and give her a taste of her own medicine. Last October in the final at Wuhan, Aryna Sabalenka was able to overpower Bertens the same way Rybakina is capable of, and it worked again a week later in the final at Zhuhai. Rybakina’s power should force her opponent to take chances, and the result will likely come down to whether or not Bertens is able to hit her spots.
Gael Monfils is only a week removed from winning a 250 title in Montpellier, and he has a chance to win two titles in one season for the first time in his career. At 33 years old, we’ve certainly seen the best from the magician, but statistics like this are proof that Monfils has underachieved based on his skill set and what he is capable of. The bright side is Monfils looks completely healthy with a focused mindset, and is proving to be a legitimate threat to all comers.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is looking for his first tour win. He appeared in three ATP finals last year, two on clay and one on grass. The breakout beginning to the Canadian’s 2019 season landed him inside the top 20 of the ATP rankings. His hardcourt season was understandably rocky, as he found himself making early exits from the US & Australian Opens in September and January, and very little success in between. His weaknesses are hard to find. He has solid mechanics, a compact two-hand backhand with a high sweeping finish like Kei Nishikori, and above average speed. There aren’t many holes in his game, but the unforced errors and early exits have piled up since the halfway point of last season. The mental part of sports is everything, and this is a prime example of how hard it is to compete at a high level when struggling with confidence.
Monfils is the higher ranked player and he’s much more familiar to the stage, so he is correctly handicapped as a slight favorite. However, his conditioning has to come into question when considering he’s played more professional tennis than anyone in the world over the last two weeks. Auger-Aliassime’s edge in the fitness category is by far the biggest disparity when comparing the players.
The 2019 Grand Slam schedule has officially come to an end, and perhaps the most intriguing topic is the classic barbershop conversation; who amongst this group of women is the best? I’m here to rank the young talent of the WTA (25 and under) with an unbiased look into who’s for real, and who’s not.
Yes, you could use the internet and search the rankings provided by the Women’s Tennis Association, but they are – in many ways – misleading. Why? For starters, the players who achieved success on the biggest stages this year were largely inconsistent. To give an example, Ashleigh Barty won her first Grand Slam title in Roland Garros and followed with a dominant performance at Birmingham, where she didn’t drop a single set. After her historic stretch of success in May, Barty lost form. The summer months were by no means a disaster, but considering her prior achievements, her results suggested she wasn’t firing on all cylinders. Barty lost her number one ranking on August 6th after a first round loss to Sofia Kenin in Toronto. Ash Barty‘s rollercoaster production this year is just one example; and make no mistake, Ashleigh Barty is an assassin who will pick apart the best players if they’re not in form. All of these top tier players are incredible athletes who have served up superstar main courses, with a little bit of human error as a side dish.
With the exception of seasoned stars like the Williams & Pliskova sisters, and anyone else aged 26 and older, this is my list of the most dangerous women’s tennis players in the world.
1. Bianca Andreescu (19, Canada): The best player alive is still a teenager. That is the scariest part about Bianca. She’s a compact combo of speed and power with an arsenal that is going to get more lethal with time as she becomes more precise with redirection from the baseline. We could be witnessing the beginning stages of the best women’s player of all time. Here’s a scenario to put this into perspective. She’s had two chances to play Serena Williams in a final this year. She lifted the trophy both times, and once was in New York at the US Open. Nine other players have faced Serena more than once in the same year in tournament finals; how many of them have beat her multiple times the way Andreescu did? Zero.
Bianca Andreescu, 2019 US Open Final vs. Serena Williams September 6th 2019
2. Naomi Osaka (21, Japan): The closest thing we’ve ever seen to Serena Williams is Osaka. She has some of the most vicious ground strokes in the game, and her court awareness and point construction are unreal. Already a major champion, she admitted that the onslaught of attention and fame that came with being the world’s best player distracted her for the first half of 2019. That seems to be behind her now, as she’s contended in every tournament in the second half of the hard court season, including a win in China that included two three set classics with Bianca Andreescu and Ashleigh Barty respectively. She’s the real deal.
3. Ashleigh Barty (23, Australia): Her achievements in 2019 have lifted her to elite status. Already a Grand Slam Champion, Barty is of smaller stature, but has a full compliment of power in her ground game to make sure the bigger hitters don’t have an advantage. The more opportunities I’ve had to watch her play, the more she’s impressed me with her ability to spare an early set and come back to win. Only Su-Wei Hsieh has more three set victories since the beginning of May. She’s simply a grinder and I don’t think the title at Roland Garros was a fluke. She will be a multiple major champion.
4. Anett Kontaveit (23, Estonia): Kontaveit has had health issues, but when she’s right, she is as good as anyone in the world. She was truly in perfect form at the US Open where she took a brutal blow after withdrawing in the third round due to illness. I believe she would have beaten Belinda Bencic, and went on to take out a laboring Naomi Osaka – just as Bencic did – to advance to her maiden Final Four. Watch out for Kontaveit to break through in 2020 on the hard courts and win her first Grand Slam title.
5. Dayana Yastremska (18, Ukraine): The second young Ukrainian in my top ten has unlimited potential. Yastremska definitely strives on the hard courts and grass where she can play with pace, and when she’s in form her ground strokes are enough to hit anyone off the court. She’s shown some inconsistencies with a few bad losses, but that can be expected from a player who should battle through the first real adversity of her young career.
6. Aryna Sabalenka (21, Belarus): Sabalenka has power for days. She’s inconsistent at times but seemingly every time out she’s fine tuning those inconsistencies more and more. Her loss in the final to Sai Zheng at Silicon Valley was a reminder that even the lighter hitters in the WTA can still bring it with plenty of pace and usually have the speed advantage over Aryna, but she’s been flawless since then, and she’s in a great spot to win at Wuhan in a match against Petra Kvitova.
Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka after their 2019 Doubles Championship at the US Open
7. Elise Mertens (23, Belgium): Mertens isn’t too flashy, but she’s fun to watch. She’s a patient baseline player who uses redirection with her ground strokes to hit winners all day. Mertens routinely finds herself playing deep into tournaments and if that’s going to be her M.O. in Grand Slams over the next few years, she just might walk away with a trophy one of these days.
8. Madison Keys (24, United States): Keys is one of the hardest hitters in the world; amongst men and women. During her title run at Cincinnati, where she beat Svetlana Kuznetsova in straight sets, it was reported by The Tennis Channel that Keys average forehand speed was 83 MPH. The only player with a harder forehand at Cincinnati was Novak Djokovic. She has a few areas for improvement, especially implementing a serve and volley, which would simply be too much to handle for even the craftiest baseline defenders.
9. Karolina Muchova (23, Czechia): She’s the second coming of Martina Navratilova. No, I’m not serious, but she’s damn good. And while I don’t think she’s quite on Martina’s level, I still think Muchova is a top ten player who will win multiple slams. I had the pleasure of watching her highly anticipated Final matchup against rising Polish contender Magda Linette, and she completely dismantled her. Twelve might be a little bit low, but until she proves to be efficient on the larger stages she can’t be placed in front of the players on this list.
10. Sofia Kenin (20, United States): Kenin is the most technical player on this list. She refuses to let the unforced errors pile up and she punishes players of lesser skill with regularity. She’s currently content with playing the baseline game, and she should be contending in majors for years to come.
11. Elina Svitolina (25, Ukraine): It’s hard to believe that Svitolina has never won a Grand Slam. She plays with power, and has 13 WTA titles to her name. It’s only a matter of time before Elina breaks through in Melbourne or Flushing at one of the hard court majors. I predict a win in January for Svitolina at the Australian Open.
12. Belinda Bencic (22, Switzerland): Once expected to be the perennial clay court contender in the WTA, Bencic has had a few setbacks with injuries. It got so bad that she apparently tossed around the idea of hanging up the sneaks, but she’s back and fully healthy for the hard court swing to start 2020, and she looks solid. Grand Slam expectations might be a bit ambitious at this point, but a few deep runs can be expected.
13. Ekaterina Alexandrova (24, Russia): What Alexandrova lacks in the trophy case, she’s made up for in the hard court season of 2019. An absolutely dominant force who is consistently finding herself favored in matches against really tough competition. And to boot, she’s winning these matches. A solid first serve and a smooth mover along the baseline allows her to keep points alive until her opponents simply make the unforced errors that she refuses to commit.
14. Maria Sakkari (24, Greece): Talk about swagger. The 24 year old from Athens has one of the most complete packages on the list. She doesn’t necessarily do anything that jumps off of the screen when you watch her, but she has grit and can rarely be counted out of a match. She won a match against Elina Svitolina that she was down 1-6 2-5 while the Ukrainian was serving for the match. She saved match point three times in that game, and came all the way back to win 1-6 7-6 6-3. She’s racked up wins against Petra Kvitova, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Kiki Bertens, and Veronika Kudermetova in the past six months. Watch out for Sakkari to break through on the clay and grass in 2020. A win at the French Open is a bold prediction, but not out of the question.
Maria Sakkari competing in the first round of the 2019 French Open at Roland Garros
15. Iga Swiatek (18, Poland): The young Pole is a flat out baller. It might be a bit ambitious to put her ahead of names like Alexandrova, Gauff, Peterson, Townsend, and Anisimova to name a few; but I think Iga Swiatek is going to be the best player in the world and we’re going to be watching a player with Serena Williams caliber excellence every year for the next decade. Another ambitious claim, but I watched a different kind of athlete I’m going to leave it at that.
Update 10/16/2019
Moving In: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Moving Out: Donna Vekic
Next Up: Donna Vekic (23, Croatia); Yulia Putintseva (24, Kazakhstan); Amanda Anisimova (18, USA); Jen Brady (24, USA); Rebecca Peterson (24, Sweden); Taylor Townsend (22, USA); Marketa Vondrousova (20, Czechia); Veronika Kudermetova (22, Russia); Elena Rybakina (20, Kazakhstan); Anna Blinkova (21, Russia); Katerina Siniakova (23, Czechia); Fiona Ferro (22, France); Bernarda Perra (24, USA); Viktoria Kuzmova (21, Slovakia)
Honorable Mention: Cori Gauff (15, USA): Ok, so surely you’ve heard of the legend known as Cori “Coco” Gauff. The 15 year old high school Sophomore beat a player by the name of Venus Williams in her maiden Wimbledon appearance. Then she went on to beat two more top 100 players, most notably Polona Hercog in three grueling sets. She ran into eventual champion Simona Halep, but you get the idea. This kid is special. In my opinion, we’re going to witness a power struggle in the next ten years between Amanda Anisimova, Bianca Andreescu, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff; and without any of these amazing talents being light years better than any of the rest, I think it will be difficult for them to make a record breaking impact in respects to accolades the way that Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Serena have, but it will be greatness all the same.
Thanks for reading. Disagree with any takes?Leave a comment below.
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